maximum drawdown

1 post with the tag “maximum drawdown”

파이썬으로 Maximum Drawdown (MDD) 확인하기

Jul 24, 2019

Maximum Drawdown (MDD)는 특정 기간동안 발생한 최대 낙폭을 의미하는 하방 리스크 지표 입니다. MDD가 클수록 투자 리스크가 크기 때문에 유의해야 합니다.

MDD = (기간 동안의 최저점 - 기간 동안의 최고점) / 기간 동안의 최고점으로 간단히 구할 수 있습니다.

파이썬에서 MDD를 다음과 같이 구할 수 있습니다.

import numpy as np
def get_mdd(x):
    """
    MDD(Maximum Draw-Down)
    :return: (peak_upper, peak_lower, mdd rate)
    """
    arr_v = np.array(x)
    peak_lower = np.argmax(np.maximum.accumulate(arr_v) - arr_v)
    peak_upper = np.argmax(arr_v[:peak_lower])
    return peak_upper, peak_lower, (arr_v[peak_lower] - arr_v[peak_upper]) / arr_v[peak_upper]

data = [['20190219', 125000.0, 127500.0, 123500.0, 126000.0, 57757], ['20190220', 125000.0, 127000.0, 124500.0, 126000.0, 68453], ['20190221', 125500.0, 126000.0, 124000.0, 125000.0, 43961], ['20190222', 125000.0, 125000.0, 123500.0, 125000.0, 31065], ['20190225', 125500.0, 126000.0, 124000.0, 125500.0, 45852], ['20190226', 125000.0, 127000.0, 124500.0, 126500.0, 37404], ['20190227', 126500.0, 127000.0, 124500.0, 126000.0, 36131], ['20190228', 126500.0, 127000.0, 124500.0, 125000.0, 69474], ['20190304', 124500.0, 125500.0, 122500.0, 123500.0, 65517], ['20190305', 123000.0, 125000.0, 122000.0, 124500.0, 35186], ['20190306', 124000.0, 124500.0, 122500.0, 123500.0, 35449], ['20190307', 123500.0, 124000.0, 122000.0, 123500.0, 34768], ['20190308', 122500.0, 122500.0, 120500.0, 121500.0, 35118], ['20190311', 121500.0, 122500.0, 120000.0, 122500.0, 39576], ['20190312', 123000.0, 124000.0, 122000.0, 123500.0, 24117], ['20190313', 123000.0, 123500.0, 121500.0, 123500.0, 37649], ['20190314', 123000.0, 124000.0, 122000.0, 123500.0, 95132], ['20190315', 123000.0, 128000.0, 123000.0, 126500.0, 107246], ['20190318', 127000.0, 131000.0, 126500.0, 131000.0, 74644], ['20190319', 130000.0, 134000.0, 129500.0, 133000.0, 68348], ['20190320', 132000.0, 133000.0, 129500.0, 131000.0, 42697], ['20190321', 130000.0, 132000.0, 127500.0, 128500.0, 54018], ['20190322', 127500.0, 129500.0, 126500.0, 127000.0, 32380], ['20190325', 125500.0, 126500.0, 124000.0, 124500.0, 37185], ['20190326', 124500.0, 125500.0, 123500.0, 124000.0, 45161], ['20190327', 124000.0, 125000.0, 123500.0, 124000.0, 34336], ['20190328', 124000.0, 124500.0, 120500.0, 121500.0, 43518], ['20190329', 122500.0, 125000.0, 122000.0, 124500.0, 39035], ['20190401', 124000.0, 126500.0, 124000.0, 126500.0, 22463], ['20190402', 125500.0, 126500.0, 123500.0, 126000.0, 31754], ['20190403', 124500.0, 128000.0, 124500.0, 128000.0, 36250], ['20190404', 128500.0, 128500.0, 126000.0, 128000.0, 34854], ['20190405', 127500.0, 129000.0, 126000.0, 127500.0, 33513], ['20190408', 127500.0, 128000.0, 126000.0, 128000.0, 39005], ['20190409', 128000.0, 129000.0, 127500.0, 128500.0, 33266], ['20190410', 128000.0, 129000.0, 126500.0, 128000.0, 64476], ['20190411', 128500.0, 129000.0, 125000.0, 125000.0, 84802], ['20190412', 126000.0, 127500.0, 125500.0, 127000.0, 39663], ['20190415', 126500.0, 128500.0, 126000.0, 127000.0, 61140], ['20190416', 127000.0, 129000.0, 126500.0, 128500.0, 40123], ['20190417', 128500.0, 129000.0, 127000.0, 128000.0, 30846], ['20190418', 128000.0, 128500.0, 124000.0, 124500.0, 55346], ['20190419', 124500.0, 125000.0, 122000.0, 123000.0, 53439], ['20190422', 123000.0, 123500.0, 121000.0, 122500.0, 30421], ['20190423', 122500.0, 123500.0, 120500.0, 121500.0, 54997], ['20190424', 122500.0, 122500.0, 119500.0, 120000.0, 63486], ['20190425', 121000.0, 121000.0, 118500.0, 119000.0, 36046], ['20190426', 118500.0, 119500.0, 117000.0, 119000.0, 43749], ['20190429', 119000.0, 119500.0, 117000.0, 119500.0, 33516], ['20190430', 122000.0, 123000.0, 119000.0, 119500.0, 94118], ['20190502', 118500.0, 122000.0, 118000.0, 121000.0, 56723], ['20190503', 121000.0, 122000.0, 119500.0, 120000.0, 35240], ['20190507', 118500.0, 119500.0, 117000.0, 117500.0, 44453], ['20190508', 116500.0, 117000.0, 115000.0, 116500.0, 52805], ['20190509', 117000.0, 117000.0, 113000.0, 113000.0, 116012], ['20190510', 113000.0, 114500.0, 110000.0, 111500.0, 86072], ['20190513', 110500.0, 110500.0, 107500.0, 108500.0, 70847], ['20190514', 107500.0, 108000.0, 105000.0, 106500.0, 92820], ['20190515', 107000.0, 107500.0, 105000.0, 107000.0, 68937], ['20190516', 107000.0, 107500.0, 104000.0, 105000.0, 64047]]
import pandas as pd
df = pd.DataFrame(data, columns=['date', 'open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume'])
mdd = get_mdd(df['close'])

(19, 59, -0.21052631578947367)

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import matplotlib.gridspec as gridspec
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(8, 5))
fig.set_facecolor('w')
gs = gridspec.GridSpec(2, 1, height_ratios=[3, 1])
axes = []
axes.append(plt.subplot(gs[0]))
axes.append(plt.subplot(gs[1], sharex=axes[0]))
axes[0].get_xaxis().set_visible(False)

from mpl_finance import candlestick_ohlc

x = np.arange(len(df.index))
ohlc = df[['open', 'high', 'low', 'close']].astype(int).values
dohlc = np.hstack((np.reshape(x, (-1, 1)), ohlc))

# 봉차트
candlestick_ohlc(axes[0], dohlc, width=0.5, colorup='r', colordown='b')

# 거래량 차트
axes[1].bar(x, df.volume, color='k', width=0.6, align='center')

import datetime
_xticks = []
_xlabels = []
_wd_prev = 0
for _x, d in zip(x, df.date.values):
    weekday = datetime.datetime.strptime(str(d), '%Y%m%d').weekday()
    if weekday <= _wd_prev:
        _xticks.append(_x)
        _xlabels.append(datetime.datetime.strptime(str(d), '%Y%m%d').strftime('%m/%d'))
    _wd_prev = weekday
axes[1].set_xticks(_xticks)
axes[1].set_xticklabels(_xlabels, rotation=45, minor=False)

# MDD 그리기
axes[0].plot(mdd[:2], df.loc[mdd[:2], 'close'], 'k')

plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

이 차트에서는 약 -21%의 MDD가 발생했습니다. 포트폴리오를 구성할 때 보유하고자 하는 종목들의 MDD를 전체적으로 확인해보는 것이 좋습니다. 특히 보유하고자 하는 종목 수가 적을수록 MDD가 낮은 종목을 보유하는 것이 안전할 것입니다.

Tags:

• python
• mdd
• maximum drawdown